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Updated 2026-01-03History
Page StatusAI Transition Model
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Long-term Lock-in

Entry

Long-term Lock-in

Model RoleDegradation Scenario
Primary DriversAI Ownership, Civilizational Competence
Sub-scenariosValues lock-in, Power lock-in, Epistemic lock-in
Related
ai-transition-model-scenarios
ai-transition-model-factors

Long-term Lock-in refers to scenarios where AI enables the permanent entrenchment of certain conditions - whether values, power structures, or epistemic environments. Unlike acute catastrophes, lock-in may unfold gradually and may not be immediately recognized as harmful.

Variants

Key Root Factors

Model Estimates

Dual Nature

Unlike other scenarios, lock-in is not inherently negative:

PoleDescription
PositiveBeneficial values and institutions stabilized, protected from degradation
NegativeAuthoritarian control, harmful ideologies, or stagnation permanently entrenched

Outcomes

Long-term Lock-in primarily affects:

  • Long-term Trajectory: The quality and character of the post-transition future
  • May contribute to Existential Catastrophe if lock-in prevents course correction