Cairn Wiki
Updated 2026-01-05History
Page StatusAI Transition Model
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Root Factors

Root Factors are the top-level causal drivers that shape AI transition outcomes. They bridge the gap between specific component parameters and ultimate outcomes like existential catastrophe and long-term trajectory.

See the interactive AI transition model for a visual representation.


The Seven Root Factors


Factor Components

Each root factor contains multiple sub-components. Click through to explore each factor's detailed breakdown.


Factor Impact on Scenarios

Each root factor affects the three scenarios differently. The grid below shows quantified impact scores (0-100) and direction:


Related Pages

  • Outcome Parameters — Ultimate outcomes these factors affect
  • Scenarios — Intermediate pathways to outcomes
  • AI Transition Model — Full model overview